The president of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky is getting weaker as the center of power. The country itself is taken over by the atmosphere of the uncertainty and the ever growing danger of economic and political collapse.

But the fight with Russia will go on with the same or even greater power and pace through the winter, which will define the next phase of this standoff.

The key role here goes to European allies of Ukraine — but not just supporting the country and its economy, but putting more pressure on Zelensky to comply with European requirements on the way to European Union.

These are some key points of analysis of current political and geopolitical situation of Ukraine, which expert of the prominent Ukrainian and international think tank “Kyiv Insights” Anatolii Oktysiuk shared with “Arch Frontline”.

Yes, of course. All of these corruption scandals and the avalanche of the political mess around them are degrading his legitimacy, first of all, in the eyes of the people, society.

This is happening in the very emotional and toxic atmosphere and it is understandable, given that these stories about the top level corruption, fleeing general prosecutors, piles of stolen cash are happening in the country, devastated by war.

But, also, the same degradation is happening in the eyes of the elites.

The core thing — almost all of the main people of president's team are either directly involved in these scandals, or are just about to be involved.

On the other hand, there are other enormous and ever growing problems.

First of all — huge and ever growing budget deficit. Of course, we had almost the same situation over all recent years. But this problem was never so dire and urgent.

Why? Because earlier we knew, that our Western allies will cover the gap. And it was so. But now we are no longer sure about this, because allies are becoming reluctant.

And this is understandable. Zelensky does not want to implement all of the reforms and laws, which our European partners demand. And the parliament with so called presidential majority is now slipping out of control, becoming increasingly chaotic and impotent.

Other major problem — mobilization. On the one hand, it is hard to achieve some major improvements and breakthroughs objectively, because of the country's social and demographic situation, on the other hand, there's is genuine political will needed.

I know this from a lot of people, who know things, believe me.

But, paradoxically, on the ground, at the frontlines we have maybe the best situation in a couple of years.

In some critical parts of the frontlines we even gave some gains and the upper hand. The main and the best thing — frontline is not collapsing and is not going to.

Of course, that is not easing the problems, I've been talking about, but, in a way, does not create additional tension in overall upheaval.

Summing it all up, we can say that Zelensky faces fundamental strategic dilemma, which is increasingly pressuring him.

Option number one — he can, at last, start pushing and implementing the demands of our European partners. Among those demands — reforms of the law enforcement and the special services in the context of the fighting the corruption.

But this would guarantee, that Zelensky finally loses the control of these structures and institutions, as all of his team. He sees this as the major danger for his power and influence.

Option number two — continue to implement some imitational semi reforms and, more importantly, continue political populism, basically pouring budget money on different “programs” or parts of society from time to time.

I think, he will continue to go the second way and that is the major problem.

Looking at the other side of the coin, major problem is that our European partners are still too reluctant to put more pressure on us.

Here, in Ukraine, there still is the critical mass of the people, who want real reforms, real European policies.

But Zelensky feels too little pressure and thinks that he can manipulate and play with Europeans.

Former US administration was more tough in that respect. Our European allies must go that way.

Promising sign — recent letter of the European Commission to Ukrainian parliament. This letter is the answer to Ukraine's request to fill 27 billion euros gap in this year's budget.

Commission reminds our parliament, that it can unblock at least 20 billion euros of European funding by implementing the set of reforms, which are still not implemented.

That is the way to go.

Yes, I agree. Every time the new round of negotiations is coming with some important meetings and visits, new scandalous information about the investigations is being released into public. It is less and less looking like the mere coincidence.

But despite everything, I support the activities of anti corruption structures and all these investigations, as I encourage our partners to put more pressure on our leadership to push country out of this swamp.

Because it is the swamp in every sense of the word.

On the one hand we still have the mob world and reality in our police, law enforcement, customs, institutions like that.

On the other hand, despite the fact, that Russians are annihilating us, we are still the big country with a lots of money in the black market and shadow economy.

And, being the president of the country, you ought not to be the biggest and toughest guy here with the biggest amount of cash, but the dryer of the swamp in chief.

Yes, sure. Economy is going to collapse, one way or another. And, look, Europeans aren’t total fools, right?

And here we have the set of possible scenarios, all of which are not very pleasant for everybody. And most unpleasant ones can be those, which are coming to life much, much faster and unexpectedly, than we all think. Or try not to think.

Some military coming to power, in order to “take control” and “save the country”.

Or, in that case if president himself finally appears in the epicenter of anti corruption scandals and investigations, people can come out and demand his removal.

We can see some repeat of the 2013-2014, but the situation is very different, because we have this war.

Well, if we're having more or less controlled transition of power, the successor of the driver in chief is current speaker of the parliament Ruslan Stefanchuk.

One way or another, some people in the power of the country, some oligarchs, as far as I know, already start to worry and think, what if the president himself is becoming the main hero of all these scandals.

Anyway, it is very dangerous, if the control and leadership is starting to waiver in such situation the country is in and, of course, Russians are doing everything to capitalize on that.

Well, we can have some hope for the real negotiations only in the next spring the earliest.

Now we have the same situation, as always. Ukraine is not going to give in and leave the territories, Russians are demanding.

And this question now is the main, the central one.

But on the fundamental, strategic level, Russian see this war as part of at least three level process — and, I think, Trump and his administration do not fully understand that.

Taking control of Ukraine or surrendering and maximally neutralizing, what is remaining of it is only one level for Russians.

Another one is Europe. Russians do not want Ukraine as the barrier for Europe. On the other hand, they want Americans to withdraw from Europe.

And Trump agrees with that. Even more — he wants maximally weak Europe himself. Sometimes I think that he even wouldn't be very much opposed to Russians assaulting Europe.

As for Russians, I think that their main and first goal on this level is Poland, not, for example, Baltic countries.

But in order to hit Poland properly, they have to have Belarus, as the takeoff zone. They have to take over Aleksander Lukashenko on this issue fully or just remove him if he's not compliant.

That will be the one of the main things and signs to watch and to take into alarm account. If Lukashenko is removed, or “withdraws”, if he's changed to some even more pro Russian figure — that's it, the next step is the Russian attack on Poland.

As for Europe, another very alarming issue for us is the trend of advance of anti European forces in Europe, first of all, in such countries, as Germany and France. If those forces are coming to the top of the power there, Houston, we have a very big problem.

So, it is kind of perfect storm situation brewing underneath us, you see.

And finally, third level — Putin wants to sit at the same table with Putin and Chinese leader Xi, as their equal. But, somewhy I think that this is not going to happen in any case with us or Europe.

Well, the main thing, that rescued us many times and still keeps on delivering — Russian disorganization and failure to deliver.

Still the main things, which I'm looking at and feeling in the air today, are the huge tiredness of the society and the atmosphere of the year 2014 — total uncertainty, what the future will bring.

Yes, the latter is possible, but still, I think, he has some guarantees — if it wasn't the case, Russians would have killed him earlier.

In a sense and for the meantime, Russians can use him, as the embodiment of “total evil” — and not only for their propaganda, but also as the argument, why they can’t start proper negotiations.

For him personally now one the worst things is that the political model of governing, which he has built — “5-6 effective managers” — is finally collapsing as we speak.

He has finally to acknowledge, that, most probably, he's not going to be reelected and stay for another term. Because this goal — to be reelected and to stay in power this way — is his main driver.

The longer the war drags on and escalates, the less chances it is going to be like he wants.

But the main thing is that the war has gone so far already.

For Ukraine itself it is harder and harder too. This winter will define a lot of things, but, in any case, both countries are and will be suffering much more, than now. And another year of war — it is the catastrophe.

For Russians it is very important to use the time span, when Trump is still in power. They are still hoping, that this is their best bet.

But somewhere just has to be the point, when everybody comes to solution, how to stop this.