Fake terrorist organizations, which conduct full scale terror war on European soil — that is the next obvious step of Russian and Belarussian regimes, escalating aggression towards Europe, European Union and NATO.

One of the main activities of such groups would be raids and incursions of the armed groups directly into territory of neighbouring countries — primarily Baltic states and Poland.

Damaging infrastructure, kidnapping or even killing people and then taking responsibility for it, simultaneously voicing pro Russian and anti Western claims and slogans — that's the blueprint of their actions.

What will be our response and where will it bring us?

This question, which is in the air already for a pretty long time, became especially urgent after the "border incident" in Latvia, which happened just couple of weeks ago.

Three armed and masked men tried to push the group of 20 illegal immigrants through the Latvian border. Being met by Latvian military, their started to intimidate and threaten them with what was, according to Latvian authorities, "resembling" to the gun or pistol.

Latvian soldiers withdrew avoiding the physical confrontation, and the masked men as well. But later they stormed into Latvian territory, damaged some border infrastructure, stole couple of surveillance cameras and left before Latvian patrol arrived.

Soon after that the mysterious organization of "Black Russes" claimed responsibility for this confrontation. It did this on the Telegram channel, created not so long ago, but already having more than 11 thousand subscribers.

The organization bragged about total success of its actions, showing that not only Latvia, but all EU and NATO are totally helpless and lost. "Victory is ours!", claimed "Black Russes".

Other organization's social media is just copy paste of Russian and Belarussian regimes propaganda about the "holy war" with the West and "threefold nation" of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, the latter needing "merciless denazification".

And, finally, the organization claims that it has nothing to do with Belarussian regime-state, being grassroots initiative from the ground, by "people" and some "veterans", who "took responsibility".

And last, but not least — the name itself. The presence of the colour in it, obviously is the trolling-like hint to the "green men". But also it refers to the historical name of the Western region of contemporary Belarus — "The Black Rus".

Well, as they say in Lithuania — "it is clear even to a horse", what this is really all about.

That's the project of the Belarussian and, beyond all doubts, Russian security services, testing relatively new direction and means of escalating aggression. First, on the immediate Western borders.

The fact, that regime officials are directly taking part in the incursions of illegal immigrants into territory of Baltic states and Poland was obvious and documented long ago.

Just recently, we had almost the same incident on Lithuanian border, which also involved threat of physical agression against Lithuanian patrol from the side of Belarussian regime representatives.

But the appearance of the "organization", which is testing the possibilities to expand agression, kinetic and terrorist actions, simultaneously claiming independence from the regime is something new.

Was it hard to anticipate and forecast? Of course, no. We have already seen numerous probes in that direction, however, those were mostly virtual provocations and testing of public reaction, claiming fake "people republics" in Lithuania and Estonia on marginal social media accounts.

So, was this probe of the new startup really successful from the Minsk and Moscow point of view? Of course, yes. And, of course, they will try to do more, to push forward.

Why?

Because Latvians really failed, despite the praise of their military's "calm and rational" reaction by highest officials.

First, it is absolutely clear, that the one and only possible reaction to such actions of the regimes is immediate, doubtless and merciless use of force.

And this use must go only to ways — either forcing aggressors to immediate surrender and detaining them, or just gunning them down.

This was promised and pledged by all of the Baltic countries authorities and military countless times, since the occupation of the Crimea by Russian "green men" in 2014 and the start of the war in Ukrainian Donbas.

For example, in Lithuania we had even military drills, when Lithuanian military and special forces were preparing for the lightning speed extermination of "green men" forces, which had already occupied a chunk of country's territory.

Needless to say, Latvia was preparing for the same scenario on its eastern borders. But when just three "black men" came, its military waved and stepped back.

Why?

The official argument of Latvian authorities, that the incident was too small and military were uncertain how to qualify the level of the threat is simply not relevant.

The truth is, that this is the clear symptom of the overall strategic confusion and uncertainty in Europe — not only Western, but, if appears, on the "Eastern flank", too.

When highest officials, military people and politicians can't figure out, where does the threshold of NATO article 5 lie and when to open fire either at the flying object or the man on the ground, what else could you expect from the people with the boots in that very ground?

The main thought the majority of the highest officials in charge are stressing, when addressing this matter in public, can be framed like that: the immediate military response of NATO members, either on national or collective level, would absolutely follow the direct and open Russian military agression, which would require none additional effort of attribution and would be obvious in all its entirety from the very start or even before it.

Everything else below and behind this still remains grey and obscure zone, with NATO, EU and the West in general still struggling to find any GPS in it.

Same question again: why?

Because there's the bigger fear of the other unknown: what would happen next, if the green-black men are gunned down point blank?

And at least two scenarios here seem to be equally possible.

Scenario number one — regimes, as the every bunch of street thugs, being fought back, are backing off.

Scenario number two — regimes, as every bunch of street thugs or mob clan, just can't accept, that they "lost" and are being "put down". So, they are sharply raising the stakes and level of escalation in the "retaliatory" move, testing the ground and the boundaries further.

That's exactly what is feared the most in European capitals — especially in the Western ones.

There's looming the same paralyzing question — then what? What will we do, if Russians are immediately opting for some open and direct military scenario and strike, skipping all possible escalation levels still left in the grey-black zone?

It is the fear that the one shot somewhere several meters into border territory of some small "frontline state" could trigger the avalanche and apocalypse of WWIII. As the one shot in Sarajevo in 1914 triggered the avalanche of WWI, which then led to apocalypse of WWII.

Russians, their vassals and allies know that fear and smell it in the air.

And, of course, they will move and already are moving forward even if that shot is not being shot.

So, there's no other option then to shoot and push them in the same situation, in which Europe is now, reassessing the same question — what will you do now?

Of course, decision and action must be taken and implemented on the national level of the countries, which are now under the terrorist attack — despite the desperate efforts of some far Western allies to stop them.

Because there's no other way, than to play this deadly poker. We're already in this game for a pretty long time and in the beginning of it there were green men on the other side of the table. So, if we continue blinking, we'll definitely lose. Not just the game, but everything, including our lives.