What could stop Russian air terror? Not only interceptors
In the conversation with “Arch Frontline” in the violently bombed Kyiv, Mr. Dickinson sees no other way out of this situation, than inflicting the same situation inside Russia.
No Mass Exodus, But a City on Edge
Russian regime is trying to cause the mass migration from the main cities of Ukraine or, at least, disrupt everyday life if majority of people — that is the main aim of the accelerated campaign of the airstrikes.
Still, there're no signs that Kremlin is succeeding in this.
That is the perspective of Peter Dickinson, editor of Ukraine Alert at the major think tank Atlantic Council.
In the conversation with “Arch Frontline” in the violently bombed Kyiv, Mr. Dickinson sees no other way out of this situation, than inflicting the same situation inside Russia.
One of the goals of Russian air terror of the main cities of Ukraine is to force new wave of refugees, fleeing from their homes there to the other parts of Ukraine and abroad. There are rumours in social media that this is already happening, people have started to leave kind of “massively”. I personally hear from my friends here, in Kyiv, that a lot of people from their social environments are leaving. Do you see it, for example, in Kyiv, which now suffers maybe the most?
No, not really. At least, in sense of “massive” process.
Well, I don't know situation on the ground in, let's say, Odessa or Kharkiv, but I don’t see this in Kyiv.
What is true that people are really worried about the nearest future, about what living conditions will be during the autumn and winter.
And this is understandable. What Russians are doing is that they are trying to disrupt and destroy the normal everyday life as much as possible.
Russia Changed Its Tactics to Break Daily Life
That is behind their changed tactics — and it is all about the timing.
Earlier, before this changed, which happened just couple of months or less ago, there were severe attacks of several hundred drones, tens of missiles, but once a week, usually at night.
After such attacks people and the city were recovering, coming back to life and carrying on till the next time.
But now Russians are trying to keep this as long as possible, for the dozen of hours in a row. They are trying to use ballistic missiles too much, counting on the jet drones, which are the major improvement of their air assaults. So, the attack is going not only all night, but also during the day and the tension is staying, all normal life is stopped.
That is the “regime” of life, which Russians are trying to impose.
Jet Drones Were Built Up for Months
You've already mention the jet drones, which are now no less, so to say, existential problem for Ukrainians and their exhausted air defences, than ballistic missiles. How has this happened?
Russians developed these drones already at the beginning of this year, but then kept accumulating them, building the launching systems, all infrastructure.
Then the kick off was in spring, roughly around the April and now we're having this.
Defense Alone Cannot Win This War
Ukrainian military, experts, politicians are repeating that countermeasures, new interceptors are just around the corner and about to come any moment. One can again question, why only now and how come that the country is so exposed to all this — not only jet drones and ballistic missiles, but also to gliding aviation bombs, which remain one of the main tools of destruction for Russians since the start of full scale invasion. In general, despite the Ukrainian official narratives about “turning tide” with deepstrikes in Russia, Russians are having the upper hand in air warfare. And this only escalating.
What is your take?
Well, this is constant cycle and essential dynamics of this war. Ukrainians are developing something, Russians are looking for the countermeasures and the answer, finding it, scaling it up. The same goes the other directions.
So, I think that Ukrainians will have the answer and countermeasures, later Russians will develop new arms and technologies, Ukrainians too.
In my opinion, it is essentially important for Ukraine not to be only in defense, because you can't win the war this way. That is why deep strikes campaign and abilities to develop it are so important. Especially, if Ukraine creates and develops its own ballistic missiles, with which they're hitting Russian oil refineries.
Things like these is the only way to force Russian regime to back down.
Unfortunately, in the meantime it looks like nothing changes — Russian regime is failing to break down Ukrainian defences, so, it has to double down on escalation. The only way for Ukrainian and our side — to try to stop Russian advance on the ground at the frontlines and to close skies as much as possible.
Bombing Ukraine Into Submission
Do you see this coming?
Russians are so committed to destroying the whole country from the air, because they are not winning on the ground, at the frontlines.
The head of the Russian regime Vladimir Putin understands that. He's not stupid, despite all of the things you could think about him.
So, he just sees that the main way is to try to bomb Ukraine into submission. Ok, if not igniting some kind of the uprising against the government, then just by depriving society of basic conditions of surviving.
The thing we have to understand — even if Ukraine is able to close the skies at, let's say, idealistic 95 percent mark, it means that 5 percent are getting through, right? If it is 5 percent of one thousand drones, it is still a lot, meaning the painful damage for the country.
Again, the one and only way for Ukraine in this situation — to inflict the same or almost the same pain on Russia.
The main question — which side will be able to use the less expensive, the most effective and the most massive tools of destruction. And this question is still far from being answered.
Russians are so committed to destroying the whole country from the air, because they are not winning on the ground, at the frontlines.
Europe's Elites Get It, Its Societies Do Not
What about Europe? I ask about Europe, because US is the different story right now. So, do you see enough sense of urgency in the main European countries, understanding that helping Ukraine ASAP and as much, as possible is the only way forward? What about the dynamics of integrating Ukrainian defense industries into European system and industries?
Do you see that the main driver of this process — will and the sense of urgency of political elites and societies — is at the adequate level?
The answer is “yes” and “no” at the same time. Part of the bussines and political elites in the Western Europe understand this and they're doing this.
But if we're talking about the societies, I'd doubt if there's enough sense of urgency and understanding of danger.
In general, I think that there is no breaking point in this, until there are some Russian “hybrid” or openly demonstrative terrorist acts with mass casualties of at least 100-200 people on European soil. Unfortunately, I fear that only this can be the one and only wake up call.
Escalation Is the Only Direction Moscow Sees
Well, I was thinking exactly the same way until some time ago, but now I'm not so sure about this. Even more — the Russian terrorist warfare against Europe might be empowering those forces and people in European countries, who always were for “diplomacy”, for “not provoking Russia” and, of course, for stopping the support of Ukraine.
And exactly this might be one of the main reasons, why Russians are escalating this still “hybrid” warfare against Europe, don't you think?
Yes, absolutely. Escalation in all the directions is the only way forward the Russian regime sees now, unfortunately. And we have to build our logic, strategic optics and planning on this, according to this.