Iranian regime has won not only against US and the West, but against Iranian people — and the US launched war has helped to get it stronger both domestically and internationally.

But still it has to be seen has it won only the battle or the existential war against Iranian society.

That is how prominent German intellectual, writer, scholar and orientalist Navid Kermani assesses the current situation of war in Iran and its future prospects.

Being the person of Iranian origin and having the relations with people in the country, Mr. Kermani talks to "Arch Frontline" about the state of Iranian society and what the West still can do to help it.

According to him, Europe, which is now having no role and say in this historical process, has to find will and guts to step forward.

Well, you can say that US helped the Iranian regime and even saved it again.

We can remember the year 2003, when US, starting the war with Iraq, basically granted Iranian regime, which was internally in a very weak position internally and externally at that time, the dominant position in the region, even over its rival Iraq after a long standing conflict.

We can see a similar or even more paradoxical outcome now — only more radical and dramatic. Before the American and Israeli attack regime was in very unstable and critical situation. Ayatollah Khamenei was old and sick. They had to launch massive massacres of people in order to crack down on the protests.

And these massacres shocked even parts of the regime itself. The same effect was also on those countries of the world, so called "Global South", which earlier supported the regime, held it legitimate subject of relations.

So, regime was doomed to relay only on repressions and brutal violence, power.

When the war started, regime knew, what to do, it was prepared for this — it was preparing for thirty years.

They replaced all the leadership, which was eliminated and knew that they just have to survive — and if they succeed, that will be victory already.

They planned the blockade of Hormuz, as one of the counter attacks, but even they haven't thought that this will be so effective and so defining everything.

Now the regime is more radical, the core elements in it are from the most radical parts of the system. Of course, the old rift between "reformists", "pragmatists" and "conservatives", "radicals" is still there, but now it is so much less the thing, the factor, then before.

Regime now regained authority in the international scene. You can say that it gained even more respect — at least in the eyes of some countries and powers, which are impressed by such performance against USA.

Similar processes we can also see in the society, where regime regain at least part of its authority, its image, as center of power, improved very much.

In general, society is divided, roughly, into a majority, who is strongly against the regime, a minority, who support and many people are just drifting somewhere around the middle. Many also fear "to become as Afghanistan", they are afraid of a total chaos. So, they think that it is better to "avoid" it by any means. And they have respect that the regime maintained stability, security and supply all over the war.

On the other side, the life for many has become more and more hard, prices are huge, people are so much frustrated, in resignation.

Well, on the one hand that is the main challenge for the regime and real urgency. They must stabilize economical situation ASAP. Especially -- for the hard living and working masses. Because this part of the society is most dangerous for the regime — not, let's say, the middle class with its calls for democracy and freedom. Not to mention that a large portion of the middle class is currently slipping into poverty.

Yes, it is safe to say that in terms if historical perspective and context.

But I'm also pointing to some caveats in this prognosis, which are caused also by this war.

On the one hand, regime, as I've said, got stronger. On the other hand, society now is more frustrated, disorganized.

So, the regime now has the opportunity of maneuvering — inside the country and also outside.

Inside the country it is still very tough to any political opposition and uncontrolled political positions and actions. But in the moment, it doesn't seem to have significantly increased social pressure; the headscarf mandate hasn't returned, and surveillance in private life hasn't intensified — as far as I can tell from here. That may change, but perhaps it's also a strategy: the main thing is that we have the power. In fact, the country is ruled by the Revolutionary Guards, not by the clergy anymore. The Revolutionary Guards are brutal, but also significantly less ideological. Perhaps the model they have in mind is Putin's Russia. By this Iran may become more pragmatic also in the region, in the relations with the other countries.

Yes. But on the other hand, it is hard to imagine, that Iran and its economy might be put in such total isolation some are talking about. Iran has China, India, Russia, many other ways and spaces to circumvent blockade.

So, until regime has the possibility to sell oil to the clients all over the world, the prospects, that it can be strangled by the sanctions or outside pressure look bleak. Especially since the front the U.S. is trying to forge against Iran is crumbling rather than growing stronger. Iran is playing the game very cleverly. And the U.S., with all its military, intellectual, and economic potential, is acting like amateurs.

Yes, regime is calculating, trying to balance these things.

And I also see, how America and the West are looking here and what options they have.

US started this war without being prepared to take action on the ground. And it is obvious, that you're not able to take down the regime only by air strikes.

Speaking about Europe, it is just sitting behind US helplessly, having no say.

If I were in the position to advise the leadership of European Union or different countries, I would urge such states, as Germany, Finland, other Nordic countries to take common diplomatic action. The main problem is that Europe has no common policy, plays no role not only in this conflict, but also in the others.

Diplomacy, mediation is so much needed now in this situation. It is needed, first of all, by Iranian people.

They had good perspectives to get more freedom in two or three years, due to massive pressure from all parts of the society. Any other leader after Khamenei would have been more moderate — if there had been a new leader at all.

But now they lost, Europe lost, the West lost and Guardians of the Islamic Revolution have won.

For the meantime.

China always behaved cautiously in relations with Iran, seeing how unstable situation was. Now, when regime has become more stronger, these relations will be seen as more important by China.

China is more important country for Iran, than Russia, despite the fact, that Iran is taking some part in Russian aggression against Ukraine. The most important frontlines for Iran are in the region.

Of course, Russia is also very brutal and ruthless regime, but I don't think that it sees such major escalation and risk, as giving Iran nuclear bomb, as useful. It might pose a risk to Russian positions.

In general, I think, even the allies of Iranian regime aren't interested in Iran becoming, so to say, "too big".