The most dangerous two months and then two years — that's the period we're entering in Europe and in the world after US midterm elections.

The main result of these elections was absolutely predictable long before the day of the elections — at least, from the perspective of the outside world. It is the sliding of the US to the abyss of the political standoff, division and unpredictability. And it means that US would be ever more weaker, unstable and unpredictable at the global arena.

The main frontlines and tipping points of this internal standoff and upheaval are more or less obvious. First, it is fight between the White House and Trump team from the one side and the House with the Senate from another.

Second — this is the fight inside the Republican party between MAGA and Trump loyalists and hardliners and those, who want to get rid of Trump and his legacy, somehow "getting back" to pre-MAGA times or just breaking free out of current state.

The reason of this is clear — people out there saw, that mythology and mysticism of "the Trump effect" is over, even on contrary — this "effect" now is more about bringing the defeat, not victory, being the toxic label.

Third, it is the infighting inside the inner circles in MAGA and Trump team, with constant purges and hunt for the "traitors" and "deserters".

Exactly this infighting is going to be especially brutal and dirty, delivering the biggest surprises not only to us all, but, for example, to Trump himself.

Well, just read and hear what failed wannabe presidential successor JD Vance and, for example, Ted Cruz from the destroyed MAGA stronghold Texas are saying. Their message — dear voters and the world, the most important decisions of our president — first of all, to start the war in Iran — were wrong and we failed to deliver in general, because of the wrong decision making and the optics. Of the president — almost no brackets needed.

But there also will be the ever growing radicalization of the MAGA core loyalist elites and electoral hardline base is one of the inevitable and natural effects of the electoral defeat.

The latter will be convinced, that the enemies will be so merciless in taking no prisoners, that there's only one chance of survival — to stick to the leader no matter what and to the last.

That also will be their main counter argument for the "traitors" — if you think that enemy will acquit you for your betrayal, you're deadly wrong.

That leads us to the fourth tipping point and frontline, this time inside the Democratic party — between the rising trend of left and "progressive" radicalism and those party elites, who want to remain more old-school centrist and inclusive.

The far left radicalism in the Democratic party will be one of the overall, general challenges to the country, its economical, social and political situation.

These and some other faultlines will only deepen, as the presidential election will be approaching. How it all will play out in the end of the day, remains totally obscure, with all the scenarios on the table.

It is absolutely real despite current overall joy about victory of democracy, the latter proving its overwhelming strength against one of the most serious authoritarian challenges in the history of the US.

Yes, this joy has really solid ground. Trump was obviously considering the new edition of January on the Capitol Hill, but much more destructive and defining — he was planning to refuse to recognize the midterms results and/or to block at any ways and costs the NES parliament to be seated in.

But he and his loyalists gave up this plan, seeing ahead of the elections, that the blue wave is going to be too big and, more importantly, there are too many former MAGA voters in it.

Does it mean that the scenarios of another possible antidemocratic coup are gone and impossible in the future? Absolutely not.

We will certainly return to talking about their possibility in the next two years.

Anyway, the most important questions for the rest of the world are at least three of the kind.

First, does the MAGA defeat mean the beginning of the end of all trend of "making things great again" and "alternative to the System" in the rest of the world, first of all — in Europe?

Absolutely not. Of course, demise of the main idol, who possessed the magic power of invincibility, is devastating blow to the global "movement". But it has too many internal causes and inertial power of discontent in every country and internationally, so it won't give up the positions just because of the MAGA failure.

Also, the ever growing avalanche and upheaval in the US will even have the new impetus for the "alternatives" in other countries, enforcing their narrative, that their enemies are bringing only chaos and bloodletting — "as it was said".

By the way, the base of MAGA will use this narrative, trying to pull the things together before the presidential campaign.

Second question — will the defeat bring constraints on the current Trump and his team global policy, aimed at doing bussiness and cutting deals with the main dictatorships of the world in the expense of the security interests of the US allies?

The short answer would be — no. The longer one — the Congress may do something to stop the most unhinged moves. But there's the bigger possibility, that on the global stage the US policies might become even more unhinged — simply, because of the need to show the "power" and to "respond" to the internal opposition in such way.

Of course, the possibility of such "big deals", which the Trump administration is plotting with Russia or with China in "remapping the world" in "multipolar" way would be even smaller, than it was initially. But the very fact of the US administration pursuing such kind of policies is already very dangerous and destructive.

Why? Because it is tempting to the alliance of the main dictatorships to capitalize on that, to use the moment, to try their luck in defeating the enemy — including US.

And the first tempting opportunity already has come now. At least, for the Russian dictatorship, still stuck in Ukraine and trying to break through with the help of the still "hybrid" terrorist escalation against the European NATO countries and allies of Ukraine.

These upcoming two months with Trump and Republicans defeated, but still in power in DC, with already ever increasing political tension and uncertainty there, with European countries sighing in relief, but still strategically lost towards US, Russia, Ukraine and their defense — isn't it the combination of the perfect last chance opportunity for the decisive move over the NATO article 5 threshold?

Ok, maybe in Moscow (and Beiging) they can decide, that it is better to imitate some kind of "constructive approach" instead, to start acting in the new series of "negotiations", etc.

Maybe, they are coming to the conclusion, that there's just a bit more of the strategic patience needed and in the coming couple of years Europe will just fall into their hands with all its "alternatives", with the US drowning in their civil war.

But "what if"? What, if the strategists out there decide, that such sitting on the bank of the river and waiting for the dead enemies pass down the flow nears too much uncertainty and thus is too risky?

Anyway, the chances of Russia attacking Eastern flank of NATO or/and some major European alliance member, China launching the assault on Taiwan — most probably, simultaneously, North Korea resuming the "frozen conflict" in the Korean peninsula, more fire erupting in the Middle East, etc., you name it — will only grow. Needless to say, proportionally to the instability in the US and Europe.

Anyway, that instability is only the catalyzer, not the main reason or driver of this escalation — the direct military conflict with the West is programmed in the genetics and current dynamics of main dictatorial regimes and their alliances.

The main hope lies in the regimes themselves — they all usually miscalculate and fail. As the authoritarian wannabes across the world.

The worst part of this story is that the way to that failure is paved with real human pain and loses.